Veronica, M. Sienly (2013) Analysis of the Macro Economic Influence Factors and Performance Company to Build a Model Prediction Bankruptcy (Study at Listed Companies in IDX for Year 1999-2010). In: The 10th International Annual Symposium on Management: Challenges and Opportunities of the Leading Edge in World Class Supply Chain Management, March 16th, 2013, Bali.
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Abstract
The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of macroeconomic factors as measured by the rate of inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product and the value of the currency and financial performance factors measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios either simultaneously or partially in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models, to analyze the effect of the variable cash flow in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models simultaneously and to analyze the accuracy of the company's bankruptcy prediction model based on the model of 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before bankruptcy prediction. The purpose of this research is based on the monetary crisis events that occurred in 1997 when many companies went bankruptcy, many companies in Indonesia which has a debt to equity ratio (DER) is greater than one (1) that show the company has a chance more likely to go bankruptcy and disagree from some of previous research that cash flow variables should included in the formation of bankruptcy prediction models. To achieve the goal of research, researcher make a hypothesis testing using macroeconomic data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the value of financial ratios and cash flow ratios obtained from IDX and ICMD. By using purposive sampling method in this research, the research sample was contained of 63 companies that 34 companies are not a bankrupt company and 29 companies are a bankrupt company. The companies are listed in BEI for all sectors except the financial sector with the observation period 1999-2010. In this research the hypothesis testing using logistic regression and the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction model testing using neural network. The results of these tests are simultaneously macroeconomic factors measured by the rate of inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product and the value of the currency and financial performance factors measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios give effect to the establishment of a prediction of corporate bankruptcy prediction models with the accuracy of prediction bankruptcy high for model 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before the bankruptcy and in simultaneously cash flow variables provide a strong enough influence in the formation of corporate bankruptcy prediction models. Partially only financial performance factors measured by financial ratios and cash flow ratios that give effect to the establishment of corporate bankruptcy prediction models with the accuracy of a company's bankruptcy prediction model high for model 3 years, 2 years and 1 year before the bankruptcy. Thus, companies need to pay attention to macroeconomic factors, financial ratios, and in particular the cash flow ratios to avoid company from bankruptcy.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | bankruptcy models, macroeconomic factors, financial ratios, cash flow ratios. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
| Depositing User: | Perpustakaan Maranatha |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jan 2016 02:15 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Jan 2016 07:39 |
| URI: | http://repository.maranatha.edu/id/eprint/18133 |
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